Roadmap ① · Available individually · €19 · web roadmap + A1 poster · Version 1.0 · As of 2026-08-18
Agentic AI & AI Infrastructure
From assistant to agent: language models begin to act — and the compute, energy and rule base decides how far
1 Executive summary (excerpt)
Language models have been a mass product since ChatGPT (November 2022); the question "Can the machine do language?" is answered. What is new is something else: models are beginning to act. They call tools, operate screens, work through tasks in several steps and correct themselves along the way. Reasoning models (o1, o3, DeepSeek-R1) have shown that compute at answer time scales performance just as compute at training time does; coding agents today solve more than 70 % of the tasks in SWE-bench Verified — in 2023 it was under 5 %.
That shifts the question from "What does the model know?" to "What can be left to the model?" — and the answer is measurable: according to METR, the length of tasks that models complete on their own with 50 % success doubles roughly every seven months; today that is a few hours, at 80 % success only minutes. Whether this trend holds decides when pilots become routine operation. It is carried by an infrastructure whose scale is new: around $400 bn of investment by the four large cloud providers in 2025 alone, data centres at gigawatt scale, an electricity demand the IEA expects to double by 2030.
2 What you get
- Executive summary: what it is about, who it is relevant for, what the roadmap claims
- Roadmap panel: retrospective since 2020 and outlook today → 3 → 5 → 10 years in four layers — interactive, with rationale, dependency chains and confidence per entry
- ADL classification per reference industry (emerging · pacing · key · base)
- Maturity (TRL 1–9) per sub-technology with stated confidence and evidence
- Implications for action per horizon: watch · pilot · invest · ignore — with reasons
- Change journal and complete list of sources, methods used linked
- The A1 poster (594 × 841 mm, portrait) as vector PDF in English and German, plus PNG — with 50+ milestones in four layers, dependencies, key figures, TRL, ADL and action matrix
3 What a roadmap looks like
The freely accessible showcase roadmap Robotics & Humanoid Systems shows structure, depth and poster exactly as you get them here.
4 Questions about buying
- What exactly am I buying?
- Access to the web roadmap (permanent, tied to your e-mail address, sign-in by link without password) and the poster as PDF/PNG for download — as of the time of purchase (version and date are printed on page and poster). Later updates are not included.
- How does payment work?
- Via Stripe (card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, SEPA direct debit and others). You receive a receipt or invoice by e-mail. Price €19; no VAT is charged (German small-business rule, Section 19 UStG).
- Right of withdrawal?
- Digital content: by purchasing you request immediate provision and acknowledge that your right of withdrawal thereby expires — this is stated explicitly once more before payment. Details in the terms of purchase.
- For teams?
- Access is personal. For sharing within a company contact us: info@operation-zukunft.de.