Roadmap ② · Available individually · €19 · web roadmap + A1 poster · Version 1.0 · As of 2026-08-18
Quantum Computing
From noisy prototypes to error-corrected machines — and what to do before that
1 Executive summary (excerpt)
Quantum computers do not compute anything a company needs today. That is not polemic but the finding after ten years of cloud access: not a single use case with a proven, independently reproduced useful advantage over classical computers exists. What does exist are physics demonstrations — Google's Sycamore in 2019, Willow in 2024, Quantinuum, Harvard/QuEra — and they have shown something important: error correction works and scales. Since late 2024 the logical error rate falls when more physical qubits are invested. So the question is no longer "whether" but "when and at what price".
Vendors answer with roadmaps: IBM promises 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates for 2029, Quantinuum a universal fault-tolerant machine in the same year, IonQ two million physical qubits by 2030. We carry these figures as declarations of intent, not expectations — vendor roadmaps in this industry have so far hit the size and missed the date. Our assessment: first fault-tolerant computations of scientific use (chemistry, materials) around 2030 ± 2 years; industrial use later; a cryptographically relevant machine (RSA-2048) in the early 2030s at the earliest, with wide uncertainty.
2 What you get
- Executive summary: what it is about, who it is relevant for, what the roadmap claims
- Roadmap panel: retrospective since 2020 and outlook today → 3 → 5 → 10 years in four layers — interactive, with rationale, dependency chains and confidence per entry
- ADL classification per reference industry (emerging · pacing · key · base)
- Maturity (TRL 1–9) per sub-technology with stated confidence and evidence
- Implications for action per horizon: watch · pilot · invest · ignore — with reasons
- Change journal and complete list of sources, methods used linked
- The A1 poster (594 × 841 mm, portrait) as vector PDF in English and German, plus PNG — with 50+ milestones in four layers, dependencies, key figures, TRL, ADL and action matrix
3 What a roadmap looks like
The freely accessible showcase roadmap Robotics & Humanoid Systems shows structure, depth and poster exactly as you get them here.
4 Questions about buying
- What exactly am I buying?
- Access to the web roadmap (permanent, tied to your e-mail address, sign-in by link without password) and the poster as PDF/PNG for download — as of the time of purchase (version and date are printed on page and poster). Later updates are not included.
- How does payment work?
- Via Stripe (card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, SEPA direct debit and others). You receive a receipt or invoice by e-mail. Price €19; no VAT is charged (German small-business rule, Section 19 UStG).
- Right of withdrawal?
- Digital content: by purchasing you request immediate provision and acknowledge that your right of withdrawal thereby expires — this is stated explicitly once more before payment. Details in the terms of purchase.
- For teams?
- Access is personal. For sharing within a company contact us: info@operation-zukunft.de.