Roadmap ④ · Available individually · €19 · web roadmap + A1 poster · Version 1.0 · As of 2026-08-19
Hydrogen & Synthetic Fuels
From hype to a niche with weight: where hydrogen is irreplaceable, where it loses — and what costs, networks and quotas decide by 2036
1 Executive summary (excerpt)
Hydrogen has gone through a full expectation cycle since 2020. 2020/21: national and European strategies, 40 GW of electrolysis by 2030, electrolyser makers’ share prices up tenfold. 2023–2025: the disillusionment — electrolysers got more expensive instead of cheaper, power prices made green hydrogen in Germany two to three times as expensive as grey, fewer than ten percent of announced projects reached a final investment decision, Ørsted, BP, Shell and Equinor cancelled ventures, the European Court of Auditors called the targets unrealistic. Installed in Germany today: around 0.2 GW; the target was 10 GW.
The roadmap does not conclude that hydrogen fails, but that it becomes smaller and more concrete. It is irreplaceable where there is no electric alternative: as feedstock in refineries, ammonia and methanol production (today ~95 million t worldwide, almost entirely fossil), in the direct reduction of steel, and — via derivatives — in long-haul shipping and aviation. There, quotas (RED III: 42 % renewable hydrogen in industry by 2030; ReFuelEU: 1.2 % e-kerosene from 2030), CBAM and the IMO levy create binding demand. Hydrogen has lost in passenger cars and building heat; in trucks and power plants it remains an option. Technically the cost threshold is approaching — Chinese electrolysers below $300/kW, high-temperature electrolysis, imports from Iberia, the Gulf and North Africa below €4/kg by around 2029 — but in Europe green hydrogen stays subsidy- and quota-driven well into the 2030s.
2 What you get
- Executive summary: what it is about, who it is relevant for, what the roadmap claims
- Roadmap panel: retrospective since 2020 and outlook today → 3 → 5 → 10 years in four layers — interactive, with rationale, dependency chains and confidence per entry
- ADL classification per reference industry (emerging · pacing · key · base)
- Maturity (TRL 1–9) per sub-technology with stated confidence and evidence
- Implications for action per horizon: watch · pilot · invest · ignore — with reasons
- Change journal and complete list of sources, methods used linked
- The A1 poster (594 × 841 mm, portrait) as vector PDF in English and German, plus PNG — with 50+ milestones in four layers, dependencies, key figures, TRL, ADL and action matrix
3 What a roadmap looks like
The freely accessible showcase roadmap Robotics & Humanoid Systems shows structure, depth and poster exactly as you get them here.
4 Questions about buying
- What exactly am I buying?
- Access to the web roadmap (permanent, tied to your e-mail address, sign-in by link without password) and the poster as PDF/PNG for download — as of the time of purchase (version and date are printed on page and poster). Later updates are not included.
- How does payment work?
- Via Stripe (card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, SEPA direct debit and others). You receive a receipt or invoice by e-mail. Price €19; no VAT is charged (German small-business rule, Section 19 UStG).
- Right of withdrawal?
- Digital content: by purchasing you request immediate provision and acknowledge that your right of withdrawal thereby expires — this is stated explicitly once more before payment. Details in the terms of purchase.
- For teams?
- Access is personal. For sharing within a company contact us: info@operation-zukunft.de.