Roadmap ⑥ · Available individually · €19 · web roadmap + A1 poster · Version 1.0 · As of 2026-08-19
Semiconductors & Chip Architectures
From transistor to system: packaging, memory and energy per operation decide — and geopolitics determines who manufactures
1 Executive summary (excerpt)
The semiconductor industry has almost doubled its revenue in five years — to around $700 bn in 2025 — and shifted its inner logic along the way. Until 2020 the smallest transistor counted; since the AI wave the system counts: how many chips can be connected in one package, how much memory bandwidth sits next to them, how much energy each operation costs. The bottleneck of 2023–2025 was not lithography but advanced packaging (CoWoS) and HBM memory; the product is no longer the chip but the rack with 72 GPUs. In 2025 Nvidia became the first company worth four trillion dollars — on the basis of a product that TSMC manufactures in Taiwan.
The technology story is one of succession at constant pace: FinFET → gate-all-around (Samsung 2022, TSMC N2 2025, Intel 18A 2025), backside power delivery (Intel 2025, TSMC A16 2027), high-NA EUV (first tool 2023, series 2028), chiplets as standard (UCIe 2022), HBM4 (2026), optical interconnects between chips (from 2026/28) and — as the next transistor change — CFET in the early 2030s. Each of these steps arrives, usually one to two years later than announced. The industry story is one of geopolitics: US export controls since 2020/22, subsidy acts in the USA ($52.7 bn), the EU (€43 bn), Japan and Korea; China answers with DUV 7 nm, Huawei Ascend and export stops on gallium, germanium and Nexperia standard chips. With Intel’s withdrawal from Magdeburg (2025) Europe has lost its largest building block and will miss the Chips Act’s 20 % target.
2 What you get
- Executive summary: what it is about, who it is relevant for, what the roadmap claims
- Roadmap panel: retrospective since 2020 and outlook today → 3 → 5 → 10 years in four layers — interactive, with rationale, dependency chains and confidence per entry
- ADL classification per reference industry (emerging · pacing · key · base)
- Maturity (TRL 1–9) per sub-technology with stated confidence and evidence
- Implications for action per horizon: watch · pilot · invest · ignore — with reasons
- Change journal and complete list of sources, methods used linked
- The A1 poster (594 × 841 mm, portrait) as vector PDF in English and German, plus PNG — with 50+ milestones in four layers, dependencies, key figures, TRL, ADL and action matrix
3 What a roadmap looks like
The freely accessible showcase roadmap Robotics & Humanoid Systems shows structure, depth and poster exactly as you get them here.
4 Questions about buying
- What exactly am I buying?
- Access to the web roadmap (permanent, tied to your e-mail address, sign-in by link without password) and the poster as PDF/PNG for download — as of the time of purchase (version and date are printed on page and poster). Later updates are not included.
- How does payment work?
- Via Stripe (card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, SEPA direct debit and others). You receive a receipt or invoice by e-mail. Price €19; no VAT is charged (German small-business rule, Section 19 UStG).
- Right of withdrawal?
- Digital content: by purchasing you request immediate provision and acknowledge that your right of withdrawal thereby expires — this is stated explicitly once more before payment. Details in the terms of purchase.
- For teams?
- Access is personal. For sharing within a company contact us: info@operation-zukunft.de.