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Method 07 · Condense and decide

Scenario Technique

Where a roadmap extrapolates an expected development, the scenario technique asks: and if not? It constructs several internally consistent but structurally different images of the future from the most important uncertain driving forces — not best case and worst case of the same future, but genuinely different worlds. Its value lies not in choosing the "right" scenario but in preparing for several: whoever knows for each scenario the early signs of its arrival is surprised by none of them.

TODAY Scenario AScenario BScenario CScenario D EARLY INDICATORS
A funnel from the present into four different futures — and on each path the mark by which you recognise it early.

Procedure

  1. Sharpen the question and the horizon. What do we need scenarios for, and until when?
  2. Collect and rate driving forces. By impact and uncertainty — the uncertain, high-impact factors span the scenario space.
  3. Form projections. Per key factor, two or three plausible, distinct outcomes.
  4. Build consistent bundles. Which outcomes fit together? From these, three or four scenarios — as narrative, not as table.
  5. Fix early indicators. For each scenario: how would we recognise that it is setting in? This is the part most people leave out.

Strengths

  • Breaks the extrapolation trap: the future is not an extension of the present.
  • Makes strategies robust against several developments instead of optimal for one.
  • Early indicators connect scenarios with ongoing scanning.

Limits

  • Costly; bad scenarios are worse than none, because they feign certainty.
  • Tends to dilute if scenarios are too similar.
  • Replaces no decision — it only structures the space for one.

How we use it in our roadmaps

Our roadmaps are expectation paths — scenarios are their cross-check. For every technology bundle we keep at least two contrast scenarios in the background in which the roadmap does not hold: faster breakthrough, longer standstill, regulatory rupture. The implications for action (block 5) are tested against these scenarios: does "invest" still hold if the breakthrough comes five years later?

The early indicators of the scenarios are at the same time search orders for scanning. Here the loop closes to picturesoftomorrow.com, where the scenario methodology stands in its full breadth; the roadmaps are its technology-specific offshoot.

References