Method 02 · Observe

Technology Radar

A radar is not a forecast but a map of the current state of knowledge: sectors for technology fields, concentric rings for time horizons, every point a technology with maturity and rationale. Its value lies in simultaneity — thirty developments at a glance, in relation to one another, instead of thirty separate reports. And in the trajectory: a radar that moves shows acceleration, standstill and disappointment more honestly than any single assessment.

Sectors, rings, points — and the movement of a point between two updates, which says more than its position.

Procedure

Fix the axes. Sectors = technology fields (for us the ten bundles), rings = time horizons (now · 1–3 · 3–10 · 10+ years). Both must be chosen so that every point has exactly one place.
Define the entry criterion. What must a signal fulfil to become a point? For us: two independent sources and a horizon estimate that can be justified.
Place points and justify them. Per point: name, field, horizon, maturity, two sentences of description, sources. Without a rationale a radar is decoration.
Calibrate. Check points against one another: is A really closer than B? Contradictions are insight, not error.
Keep it moving. Fixed dates at which points move, arrive, disappear — and document why.

Strengths

Overview and relation: connections become visible that stay hidden in lists.
A shared language for discussion across functions.
The trajectory over time is itself a statement.

Limits

Invites false precision: a point looks more exact than the estimate behind it.
Two axes can only hint at complexity — interactions are missing.
Without maintenance a radar ages faster than you can read it.

How we use it in our roadmaps

The radar on our home page is the condensation of the scanning: ten sectors that correspond exactly to the ten roadmap bundles, four time horizons, every point with maturity and rationale in its tooltip. The data lives in a single file; the radar renders itself completely from it as soon as a point moves.

For club members the radar is also the entry into the roadmaps: every point links to the relevant passage of its bundle's roadmap — that is where it says why the point sits where it does and what its movement means for the timing of action. Radar and roadmap are one product, not two.

References

ThoughtWorks (since 2010): Technology Radar — origin of the format in the software industry.
Rohrbeck, R., Heuer, J. & Arnold, H. (2006): The Technology Radar — an Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy. IEEE ICMIT 2006, 978–983.
Schuh, G. & Klappert, S. (eds.) (2011): Technologiemanagement. Handbuch Produktion und Management 2. Springer, Berlin.