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Method 03 · Observe

S-Curve Analysis

A technology's performance does not grow linearly with the effort invested but in an S-shape: a sluggish start, a steep middle, a flattening out at a physical or economic limit. Whoever knows where on the curve a technology stands knows whether further investment still buys progress — or whether the leaps have long been happening on a new, lower curve. The transition between two curves is the most dangerous moment: the old technology is still better, the new one already faster.

EFFORT / TIME PERFORMANCE Limit of the old technology Crossover: old still better, new already faster
Two S-curves: the old technology flattens at its limit, the new one starts lower and rises above it. The crossover decides on investment timing.

Procedure

  1. Choose a performance measure. Which figure describes the technology — energy density, cost per unit, efficiency, error rate? No measure, no curve.
  2. Assemble the time series. Historical values over years; often laborious, usually worth it.
  3. Estimate the limit. Where does the physical or economic ceiling lie? That is the upper bound of the curve.
  4. Locate the position. Is the current state in the steep part or near the limit? The distance to the limit is the remaining potential.
  5. Look for the successor. Which technology starts a new curve — still worse, but with a higher limit?

Strengths

  • Forces quantification where opinion otherwise reigns.
  • Makes remaining potential and substitution risk visible.
  • Proven across many technology generations.

Limits

  • The limit is an assumption — historically it was often set too low.
  • Not every technology has an unambiguous performance measure.
  • Says nothing about market acceptance, only about technical possibility.

How we use it in our roadmaps

In the roadmaps the S-curve sits inside the block Maturity and uncertainty and in the timeline itself: where a sub-technology is in the steep part, we place milestones densely; where it approaches its limit, we shift the view to the successor technology. In batteries, for instance, the lithium-ion curve is flattening out while sodium-ion and solid-state begin curves of their own — that is the core of the roadmap "Energy Storage".

Where we have a performance measure and a time series, we show the curve in the roadmap; where we do not, we say so and lower the confidence.

References